Everton Target Johnston as Patterson Era Runs Out of Road

The Patterson Problem

Nathan Patterson arrived at Goodison Park in January 2022 for a fee reported at £12 million. He was 20 years old, an academy product from Rangers, and a full Scotland international. He has since made 37 Premier League appearances across two and a half seasons.

That is the headline figure. The bigger issue is availability. Patterson has struggled with ankle, knee, and hamstring complaints. He missed the run-in last term. Sean Dyche used him sparingly even when fit. He started just 6 league matches in the 2023-24 campaign before his season ended prematurely.

Ashley Young, at 38 years old, started more games at right-back than Patterson. That tells you everything.

Why Johnston Makes Sense

Alistair Johnston has been Celtic's first-choice right-back since arriving from CF Montreal in January 2023. He won a domestic treble in his first six months. He started every match for Canada at the 2022 World Cup. He is durable, aggressive in one-on-one duels, and comfortable in a back four.

The profile is different from Patterson's. Johnston is not a marauding full-back. He averages around 0.8 tackles per 90 minutes in the Scottish Premiership, slightly below the league median for his position. What he does well is position himself correctly, track runners, and avoid getting caught upfield. His duels won rate sits at 63%, which would put him comfortably inside the Premier League top ten for full-backs.

Dyche wants defenders who defend first. That is Johnston in a sentence.

The Scottish Premiership Question

The obvious objection is strength of opposition. The Scottish Premiership is not the Premier League. Players who dominate north of the border often struggle with the speed and physicality of English football. Johnston has faced European opposition with Celtic, including Champions League group-stage matches against Real Madrid, Leipzig, and Atletico Madrid across two seasons. He was exposed in moments but not outclassed across 90 minutes.

His international experience helps. Canada played Belgium, Croatia, and Morocco at the World Cup. Johnston held his own against Eden Hazard and Andreas Perisic. That is a higher calibration point than anything he faces weekly in Glasgow.

The Transfer Arithmetic

Everton are working under PSR constraints. Changing accounting periods and the proposed takeover by the Friedkin Group have added uncertainty. Any incoming fee for Patterson would likely be reinvested immediately.

Patterson still has two years remaining on his contract. His market value has dropped significantly from the £12 million Everton paid. A fee in the region of £5-7 million would represent the realistic ceiling. That is not enough to fund a major signing, but it could offset a portion of a Johnston bid.

Celtic are under no pressure to sell. Johnston has three years left on his deal. They signed him for roughly £3 million. Any approach from Everton would likely need to start at £8 million to prompt conversation, potentially more given Celtic's financial position and Johnston's importance to Brendan Rodgers' system.

Profile Assessment

The positional fit is straightforward. Dyche uses a 4-4-2 or 4-5-1 structure that asks right-backs to hold width, support the winger, recover quickly, and win aerial duels at the back post. Johnston is aerially competent for a full-back, winning roughly 55% of his headed duels. He is positionally disciplined to a fault.

The flaw is going forward. Johnston's crossing accuracy hovers around 24% in league play, and his open-play xA per 90 sits at just 0.06. Jack Harrison and Dwight McNeil provide width and delivery from midfield. They do not need their right-back to be Trent Alexander-Arnold.

The Bajrami Sidebar

Reports linking Nadim Bajrami with a Rangers exit are a separate thread. The Algerian midfielder joined Philippe Clement's squad on loan from Sassuolo last summer. He showed flashes, including a goal in the Europa League, but struggled to nail down a consistent starting role.

His departure would free wages and potentially generate a modest fee. It also underscores a broader reconstruction underway at Ibrox. Clement is reshaping a squad that finished second domestically and failed to reach the Scottish Cup final.

What The Numbers Demand

If Everton sell Patterson for £5 million and sign Johnston for £10 million, the net spend is £5 million plus wages. That is manageable under PSR, particularly if the Friedkin takeover is ratified before January.

More importantly, it addresses the weakest structural point in the team. Young cannot play 38 games at 38. Ben Godfrey departed for Atalanta. Seamus Coleman is 35 and entering the final year of his deal. A reliable right-back is non-negotiable.

Performance Verdict

Johnston would represent a downgrade in pure athletic ceiling compared to a healthy Patterson. He is slower, less explosive in short spaces, and offers less in transition. But he is available, seasoned at the top level despite the league he plays in, and defensively sound.

Everton need a player who can start 30 Premier League games and not require three substitutes per month to cover his positioning errors. Johnston fits that requirement.

Dyche's teams are built on defensive structure, second balls, and set pieces. A right-back who wins his duels and stays goalside is worth more in that system than a flyer who beats a man but loses his runner. Johnston is the pragmatic addition Everton actually need.

The risk is modest. If he transitions adequately, Everton have solved a problem position for £10 million in a market where capable right-backs cost double. If he struggles, his underlying statistics suggest a floor high enough to function as rotation cover.

That is the calculation. Patterson, for all his talent, has never proven he can stay on the pitch long enough to be the solution. Two and a half years in, Everton are right to look elsewhere.